"E-SKEPTIC FOR MAY 11, 2001
Copyright 2001 Michael Shermer, Skeptics Society, Skeptic magazine, e-Skeptic magazine (www.skeptic.com and skepticmag@aol.com).
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BIG UFO WASHINGTON PRESS CLUB CONFERENCE
The data are in and they support my theory about UFOs: For years I've been arguing that the serious UFOlogists agree with skeptics that 95% of all sightings are fully explicable through natural phenomena (Venus, weather balloons, rocket launches, blimps, swamp gas, sun dogs, etc.). So what we are really discussing here is a residue of unexplained anomalies. Below you will see the statistic reported from Project Blue Book that of the 12,618 reported sightings all but 701 were explained. That is precisely 5.5%.
So what is really going on here is that UFOlogists have constructed an entire world-view on the residue of anomalies. This is a fallacy in their philosophy of science: all fields of science have what is known as the residue problem--there will always be a residue of unexplained phenomena or anomalies because no theory, paradigm, or research program can explain everything. An analogy I use is the L.A.P.D.: let's say there are a hundred homicides every year in L.A. county, and that the L.A.P.D. solves 95 of the homicides. Do we assume that the other 5 homicides were abducted by aliens or murdered by men in black? No, of course not. We simply recognize that the hard working men in blue cannot possibly solve every crime. We live with that level of uncertainty.
So, until the UFOlogists come up with an actual alien body or spacecraft, after 50 years of showing us blurry photographs and grainy videos, and recounting endless anecdotal stories about things that went bump in the night in Farmer Bob's field in Puckerbrush, Kansas at 3:00 in the morning, it would be prudent to remain skeptical and live with the 5% uncertainty."
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