The Yomiuri Shimbun online - 19 avril 2000 (www.yomiuri.co.jp/index-e.htm)
Mt. Usu prediction restores public confidence in science
Isamu Mishima - Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writer
Mt. Usu in southwestern Hokkaido erupted on March 31 for the first time in 23 years, but no casualties have been reported so far thanks to a warning issued immediately before the event.
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Thus, Okada had a difficult decision to make. People expect such a prediction to be accurate, and he therefore ran the risk of having to assume responsibility for disrupting people's lives if his prognosis proved to be a false alarm.
As it turned out, his prediction was spot-on, and his brave decision paid off.
Furthermore, it resulted in increased public confidence in science. In recent years, people have never felt more in tune with science nor had greater confidence in it than now.
Certainly, the faith of the Japanese people in science and technology has been severely rocked by a string of recent failures.
There was September's criticality incident at JCO Co.'s Tokaimura facility in Ibaraki Prefecture--the nation's worst-ever nuclear accident. Then there were the failed launches of domestically manufactured rockets.
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One common factor that was lacking in both the criticality accident and the failed launches was a detailed, intelligible explanation to the public on the part of nuclear experts and rocket scientists--unlike in the case of Mt. Usu, the eruption of which was predicted so bravely and in such a timely manner by Okada.
Intelligible explanations to the public by experienced scientists, based on accurate data, would deepen our understanding and bring us closer to science.
In the long run, such explanations would be an effective way to boost public confidence in science.
That was evident in the case of Okada, who candidly explained what was happening with regard to Mt. Usu.
Much can be learned from the example of Okada, who has given a local fishermen's association a detailed explanation of the potential effects of the eruption, and tirelessly briefs the press several times a day.